03080naa a2200265 a 450000100080000000500110000800800410001902200150006002400270007510000160010224501270011826000090024550005260025452017240078065300630250465300140256765300150258165300230259665300180261965300250263765300220266265300250268470000160270977300890272510653502025-09-02       2025    bl uuuu     u00u1 u    #d  a1442-9985.7 a10.1111/aec.701112DOI1 aGALLEGO, F.  aProjected land-cover changes and their consequences on the supply of ecosystem services in Uruguay.h[electronic resource]  c2025  aArticle history: Manuscript received 28 March 2025, Manuscript revised 25 July 2025, Manuscript accepted 16 August 2025, Version of Record online 22 August 2025, Issue Online 22 August 2025. -- Corresponding author: F. Gallego, Instituto de Ecología y Ciencias Ambientales, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la República, Montevideo, Uruguay. Email: fgallego@fcien.edu.uy -- Funding: Funding: This work was supported by three ANII projects (FMV_3_2020_1_162279; FMV_1_2021_1_167032; FSA_1_2022_1_175282) and INIA. --  aABSTRACT.- Grasslands are among the most human-modified biomes worldwide due to the expansion of croplands and afforestation. In the scenario of productive intensification, it is necessary to generate alternatives to model land-cover changes and their environmental consequences. This study aimed to generate land-cover projections and quantify the impact of these changes on ecosystem service supply in Uruguay. To achieve this, we used land-cover maps, Markovchain models and an ecosystem services supply index (ESSI). Transition probabilities between land-cover classes were calculated for two time periods (2000-2010 and 2010-2019) based on maps from 2000, 2010 and 2019. These probabilities informed two Markov chain models to project land-cover changes up to 2037. With the projected land-cover maps, spatial models were used to relate the proportion of croplands and grasslands with the ESSI. Our results indicate a continued expansion of croplands and afforestation over the coming decades, while grasslands will remain the dominant land cover, representing 46% of the landscape by 2037. Grasslands exhibited the highest probability of persistence in both periods, while croplands and afforestation increased their persistence probability by 60% and 13%, respectively. The ESSI shows a 5% decrease between 2000 and 2037. These findings highlight the ongoing transformation of Uruguay's landscapes and the potential trade-offs between land-use intensification and ecosystem services. The results provide valuable empirical evidence to support territorial planning and sustainable management strategies, helping to balance production needs with environmental conservation. © 2025 Ecological Society of Australia.  aÁREA DE RECURSOS NATURALES, PRODUCCIÓN Y AMBIENTE - INIA  aEcosystem  aGrasslands  aINIA LA ESTANZUELA  aMarkov chains  aService supply index  aSpatial modelling  aTerritorial planning1 aPARUELO, J.  tAustral Ecology, 2025, Volume 50, Issue 8, e70111. https://doi.org/10.1111/aec.70111