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 | Acceso al texto completo restringido a Biblioteca INIA Las Brujas. Por información adicional contacte bibliolb@inia.org.uy. |
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Registro completo
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Biblioteca (s) : |
INIA Las Brujas. |
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Fecha : |
02/09/2025 |
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Actualizado : |
02/09/2025 |
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Tipo de producción científica : |
Artículos en Revistas Indexadas Internacionales |
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Autor : |
GALLEGO, F.; PARUELO, J. |
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Afiliación : |
F. GALLEGO, Instituto de Ecología y Ciencias Ambientales, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la República, Montevideo, Uruguay; JOSÉ PARUELO, INIA (Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuaria), Uruguay; Instituto Ecología y Ciencias Ambientales, Fac. Ciencias, Univ. de la República, Montevideo, UY; IFEVA, Bs.As., Argentina; ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8784-9431. |
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Título : |
Projected land-cover changes and their consequences on the supply of ecosystem services in Uruguay. |
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Complemento del título : |
Research article. |
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Fecha de publicación : |
2025 |
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Fuente / Imprenta : |
Austral Ecology, 2025, Volume 50, Issue 8, e70111. https://doi.org/10.1111/aec.70111 |
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ISSN : |
1442-9985. |
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DOI : |
10.1111/aec.70111 |
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Idioma : |
Inglés |
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Notas : |
Article history: Manuscript received 28 March 2025, Manuscript revised 25 July 2025, Manuscript accepted 16 August 2025, Version of Record online 22 August 2025, Issue Online 22 August 2025. -- Corresponding author: F. Gallego, Instituto de Ecología y Ciencias Ambientales, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la República, Montevideo, Uruguay. Email: fgallego@fcien.edu.uy -- Funding: Funding: This work was supported by three ANII projects (FMV_3_2020_1_162279; FMV_1_2021_1_167032; FSA_1_2022_1_175282) and INIA. -- |
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Contenido : |
ABSTRACT.- Grasslands are among the most human-modified biomes worldwide due to the expansion of croplands and afforestation. In the scenario of productive intensification, it is necessary to generate alternatives to model land-cover changes and their environmental consequences. This study aimed to generate land-cover projections and quantify the impact of these changes on ecosystem service supply in Uruguay. To achieve this, we used land-cover maps, Markovchain models and an ecosystem services supply index (ESSI). Transition probabilities between land-cover classes were calculated for two time periods (2000-2010 and 2010-2019) based on maps from 2000, 2010 and 2019. These probabilities informed two Markov chain models to project land-cover changes up to 2037. With the projected land-cover maps, spatial models were used to relate the proportion of croplands and grasslands with the ESSI. Our results indicate a continued expansion of croplands and afforestation over the coming decades, while grasslands will remain the dominant land cover, representing 46% of the landscape by 2037. Grasslands exhibited the highest probability of persistence in both periods, while croplands and afforestation increased their persistence probability by 60% and 13%, respectively. The ESSI shows a 5% decrease between 2000 and 2037. These findings highlight the ongoing transformation of Uruguay's landscapes and the potential trade-offs between land-use intensification and ecosystem services. The results provide valuable empirical evidence to support territorial planning and sustainable management strategies, helping to balance production needs with environmental conservation. © 2025 Ecological Society of Australia. MenosABSTRACT.- Grasslands are among the most human-modified biomes worldwide due to the expansion of croplands and afforestation. In the scenario of productive intensification, it is necessary to generate alternatives to model land-cover changes and their environmental consequences. This study aimed to generate land-cover projections and quantify the impact of these changes on ecosystem service supply in Uruguay. To achieve this, we used land-cover maps, Markovchain models and an ecosystem services supply index (ESSI). Transition probabilities between land-cover classes were calculated for two time periods (2000-2010 and 2010-2019) based on maps from 2000, 2010 and 2019. These probabilities informed two Markov chain models to project land-cover changes up to 2037. With the projected land-cover maps, spatial models were used to relate the proportion of croplands and grasslands with the ESSI. Our results indicate a continued expansion of croplands and afforestation over the coming decades, while grasslands will remain the dominant land cover, representing 46% of the landscape by 2037. Grasslands exhibited the highest probability of persistence in both periods, while croplands and afforestation increased their persistence probability by 60% and 13%, respectively. The ESSI shows a 5% decrease between 2000 and 2037. These findings highlight the ongoing transformation of Uruguay's landscapes and the potential trade-offs between land-use intensification and ecosystem services. The resu... Presentar Todo |
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Palabras claves : |
ÁREA DE RECURSOS NATURALES, PRODUCCIÓN Y AMBIENTE - INIA; Ecosystem; Grasslands; INIA LA ESTANZUELA; Markov chains; Service supply index; Spatial modelling; Territorial planning. |
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Asunto categoría : |
P01 Conservación de la naturaleza y recursos de La tierra |
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Marc : |
LEADER 03080naa a2200265 a 4500
001 1065350
005 2025-09-02
008 2025 bl uuuu u00u1 u #d
022 $a1442-9985.
024 7 $a10.1111/aec.70111$2DOI
100 1 $aGALLEGO, F.
245 $aProjected land-cover changes and their consequences on the supply of ecosystem services in Uruguay.$h[electronic resource]
260 $c2025
500 $aArticle history: Manuscript received 28 March 2025, Manuscript revised 25 July 2025, Manuscript accepted 16 August 2025, Version of Record online 22 August 2025, Issue Online 22 August 2025. -- Corresponding author: F. Gallego, Instituto de Ecología y Ciencias Ambientales, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la República, Montevideo, Uruguay. Email: fgallego@fcien.edu.uy -- Funding: Funding: This work was supported by three ANII projects (FMV_3_2020_1_162279; FMV_1_2021_1_167032; FSA_1_2022_1_175282) and INIA. --
520 $aABSTRACT.- Grasslands are among the most human-modified biomes worldwide due to the expansion of croplands and afforestation. In the scenario of productive intensification, it is necessary to generate alternatives to model land-cover changes and their environmental consequences. This study aimed to generate land-cover projections and quantify the impact of these changes on ecosystem service supply in Uruguay. To achieve this, we used land-cover maps, Markovchain models and an ecosystem services supply index (ESSI). Transition probabilities between land-cover classes were calculated for two time periods (2000-2010 and 2010-2019) based on maps from 2000, 2010 and 2019. These probabilities informed two Markov chain models to project land-cover changes up to 2037. With the projected land-cover maps, spatial models were used to relate the proportion of croplands and grasslands with the ESSI. Our results indicate a continued expansion of croplands and afforestation over the coming decades, while grasslands will remain the dominant land cover, representing 46% of the landscape by 2037. Grasslands exhibited the highest probability of persistence in both periods, while croplands and afforestation increased their persistence probability by 60% and 13%, respectively. The ESSI shows a 5% decrease between 2000 and 2037. These findings highlight the ongoing transformation of Uruguay's landscapes and the potential trade-offs between land-use intensification and ecosystem services. The results provide valuable empirical evidence to support territorial planning and sustainable management strategies, helping to balance production needs with environmental conservation. © 2025 Ecological Society of Australia.
653 $aÁREA DE RECURSOS NATURALES, PRODUCCIÓN Y AMBIENTE - INIA
653 $aEcosystem
653 $aGrasslands
653 $aINIA LA ESTANZUELA
653 $aMarkov chains
653 $aService supply index
653 $aSpatial modelling
653 $aTerritorial planning
700 1 $aPARUELO, J.
773 $tAustral Ecology, 2025, Volume 50, Issue 8, e70111. https://doi.org/10.1111/aec.70111
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